Overview

This course surveys and applies various tools of operational and decision analysis to naval tactical problems. Topics include basic operational and tactical problem formulation, tactical decision analysis, and the application of uncertainty models for tactical problems in search and detection and weapons effectiveness.

Included in Degrees & Certificates

• 117
• 274
• 281
• 363

Prerequisites

• A course in calculus-based probability and statistics (OS2080, OS3180 or equivalent)
• Or permission of the instructor

Learning Outcomes

• Carry out the Operations Analysis method including problem formulation, objectives, alternative courses of action, variables, measures of effectiveness, analysis, and communicating results of analysis.
• Compute cumulative detection probability based on independent discrete glimpses and continuous-looking detection rate model and understand the inverse-cube law of sighting.
• Work with lateral range curves and sweep width to compute cumulative detection probability and understand the uses and limitations of cookie-cutter equivalence.
• Perform area search and patrol analysis to include exhaustive search, random search, parallel sweep search, and random search of an expanding area.
• Formulate optimal search models, including a probability map, Bayesian updating, and myopic allocation of random search effort.
• Analyze barrier patrol search, such as crossover patrol and linear patrol, to include first-order approximation methods and kinematic enhancement.
• Formulate and solve two-person zero-sum games and use them to study search and patrol operations.
• Assess weapon effectiveness with damage function, lethal area, firing error, and analyze the effectiveness of a layered defense system.
• Gain an understanding of combat models, such as salvo combat models, Lanchester models, and stochastic dual models.