Lee, Doowan

NPS will evaluate and assess models that capture conflict dynamics observed in the SOCCENT AOR from a system dynamic perspective. It will explore and assess a broad set of interactive social and political dynamics in order to assist CTTSO to develop complex adaptive system (CAS) models of irregular warfare. In particular, the project will explore how movement dynamics such as shifting socioeconomic processes, external influence, network characteristics, narratives, and information operations affect the course of the conflicts that are taking place in the SOCCENT AOR. In the process, participants from NPS will evaluate the educational and operational utility of models that depict system dynamics between social movements during the Arab Spring and the various civil wars that followed in the Middle East and North Africa. For instance, the project will focus on modeling the conditions and mechanisms that enabled the emergence and expansion of ISIS from the Syrian civil war. In essence, this project will assist CTTSO's modeling to incorporate the social dynamics of mobilization and recruitment that underpin the operational resilience of ISIS and explore how to undermine and counter such dynamics. These models will eventually be utilized to assist mission planning and course of action development. The DA department's faculty expertise on system dynamics/modeling and relationship with the special operations community benefits the research objectives of CTTSO.
Defense Analysis
Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office
DoD
2017