Tsypkin, Mikhail

The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted the Kremlin’s growing reliance on nuclear weapons as a practical instrument of national security. For the last several years, Russia has actively used elements of its strategic nuclear triad to send signals to the United States and other NATO members, as well as to Japan. Russia has also embarked on a massive modernization of its nuclear forces.

This study will address the following questions: how likely is Russian use of nuclear weapons in a crisis? What do Russian policies and behavior imply for long-standing U.S. assumptions about the requirements for deterrence and escalation control? How should U.S. policy be adapted in response to changes in Russia’s force posture and conduct? What role should the U.S. Navy play in such a response? What policy revisions should the United States recommend to its NATO Allies and other security partners? To what extent should Alliance plans concerning air and ballistic missile defenses and other capabilities be revised in light of Russian behavior? What are the views of the NATO Allies on how to respond to Russia’s evolving nuclear policies, including the possible Russian deployment of intermediate-range missiles in violation of the INF Treaty?
NPS Naval Research Program
Office of the Chief of Naval Operations
Navy
2016