Murphree, James T.

Navy long range planning (leads of weeks to years) will be substantially enhanced by new long range forecast (LRF) systems that Naval Oceanography will put into operational use in the next 1-5 years. These systems will improve long range planning and decision making by providing increased forecast accuracy, spatial/temporal resolution, and coverage (e.g., global, seafloor to space). But research is needed to determine how to optimally apply the LRFs in planning. LRFs tend to be probabilistic, categorical, and conditional, and to have large valid periods and regions compared to short range weather forecasts. LRF skill can vary substantially by location, season, variable, lead time, and climate regime. These characteristics of LRFs, plus the new planning capabilities that will be enabled by the LRFs, create challenges for applying the LRFs in planning. We will work with LRF producers and users to identify and develop methods that help ensure that the new LRFs are effectively used in improving long range planning. Our focus will be on LRFs with lead times of 30-90 days. Our main research questions will include:

1. What types of planning and decision making have the most potential to benefit from LRFs?

2. What types of LRF-based products should be created to support real-world operations, exercises, and resource protection?

3. How does the potential operational value of LRFs vary by operation, location, time, variable, lead time, etc.?

4. What are the most effective methods for communicating LRF information to planners and decision makers?