Lucas, Thomas W.

The Navy uses complex models to help manage its human capital. These models help Navy leadership understand the potential impacts and risks of changes to force structure, policies, and the economy on its future personnel. Some of these models contain a large number of input variables, many of which are uncertain. They also generate an enormous amount of output data. This project will build on Phase I's efforts, currently underway, at enhancing the analytic utility of the Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) model and some initial testing of the Navy Total force Strength Model (NTFSM). NPS will work with N1 and their representatives to assess the merits of hosting the model at NPS versus establishing a data farming environment at existing facilities. We will also assess how this approach can be used in the verification and validation process- with an initial focus on accuracy testing. The goal is to enable N1 to better understand and utilize its complex models to support resource and policy decisions that create and shape the future Navy. For example, investigating the inherent variability in OSAM and NTFSM projected end strength values will provide strength planners and community managers the insight required to confidently use these models for force shaping policy and future planning. We will also team with N1 to apply the new capabilities to a case study of interest, such as exploring the impacts of potential programs intended to increase female SWO retention.
NPS Naval Research Program
Office of the Chief of Naval Operations
Navy
2016