Warren, Timothy C.

Military planners, especially in the information operations community, are increasingly aware of the importance of social network structures as both threat indicators and tools for operational assessment. However, researchers currently lack effective tools for understanding and predicting how network structures are likely to change in response to external events. This project seeks to break new ground by developing formal models of interaction within and between human networks, with a particular focus on understanding the structural impacts of interactions between physical networks (e.g. mass media and transportation infrastructure) and social networks (e.g. interpersonal associations and communications). In particular, this project will focus building an agent-based computer simulation model of the impact of external shocks on the decisions of agents to form new network ties or break existing ties. The model will focus on understanding how changes in structure propagate, not just within networks, but between networks. The end goal of the simulation will be the generation of predictive metrics which allow us to better understand how physical and social network structures are likely to respond to disruptive external events, ranging from weather disasters to political rebellions.
Defense Analysis
Army Research Office
Army
2017